The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Dec. 13): The first Hobbit earned a very strong $303 million last year, though anecdotal evidence suggests that many Lord of the Rings fans weren't thrilled with the movie. Historically, when an anticipated movie receives lukewarm audience reactions, its sequel suffers at the box office. Warner Bros. is working overtime to try to keep too many fans from bailing: the marketing material emphasizes Lord of the Rings favorites Gandalf and Legolas, and the prospect of finally seeing the dragon Smaug should also help. Forecast: $230 million.
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